Survey of Indicator Candidates in Sumatra: Prabowo 48%, Anies 39.5%, Ganjar 6.2%
The Indonesian Political Indicators survey institute released a survey on the electability of the 2024 presidential candidates in West Sumatra Province. As a result, presidential candidate Gerindra Prabowo Subianto won the highest electability with 48 percent.
This survey was held from 26 June to 10 July 2023 involving 810 respondents in each electoral district. Meanwhile, West Sumatra consists of 2 electoral districts, thus the total respondents in 2 electoral districts are 1,620.
The survey method was carried out by face-to-face interviews. The survey margin of error is +/- 3.5% with a 95% confidence level.
Respondents were asked 'if the presidential election were held now, who would you choose as president among the following names?'. As a result, Prabowo Subianto outperformed Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo.
Following are the survey results:
July 2023
Prabowo Subianto 48%
Anies Baswedan 39.5%
Ganjar Pranowo 6.2%
TT/TJ 6.2%
January 2023
Anies 49.6%
Prabowo 33.9%
Reward 7.7%
TT/TJ 8.7%
Lead Researcher of Indonesian Political Indicators Burhanuddin Muhtadi then discussed the survey results. He said that Prabowo Subianto's increased electability was due to his success in recovering the support of the people of West Sumatra.
"Pak Prabowo has succeeded in restoring the support of voters from West Sumatra, but again the journey is still far away," said Burhanuddin when explaining the survey, Thursday (3/8/2023).
Apart from that, he said that there was hard work by the Chairperson of the W Sumatra DPD Gerindra Andre Rosiade which made Prabowo Subianto's electability increase. Apart from that, Prabowo is also said to be able to recover his electability after dropping dramatically in January.
"Maybe thanks to the solid team, Bung Andre as the field commander worked hard, yes it was photographed in the survey, confirmed, but again the journey is still far away, what's interesting for me was Mr Prabwo's voice dropped, Anies won significantly in January 2023, it turned out in July 2023 there is a change,"he said.
"This is proof of Pak Prabowo's entry into Pak Jokowi's government, even though it had a negative effect on Pak Prabowo in January, but slowly but surely Pak Prabowo was able to recover his electability," he continued.
Survei Capres Indikator di Sumbar: Prabowo 48%, Anies 39,5%, Ganjar 6,2%
Lembaga survei Indikator Politik Indonesia merilis survei elektabilitas calon presiden 2024 di Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Hasilnya, bacapres Gerindra Prabowo Subianto meraih elektabilitas tertinggi dengan 48 persen.
Survei ini digelar pada 26 Juni-10 Juli 2023 dengan melibatkan 810 responden di tiap dapil. Adapun Sumatera Barat terdiri dari 2 dapil, dengan demikian responden total di 2 dapil yakni 1.620.
Metode survei dilakukan dengan wawancara secara tatap muka. Adapun margin of error survei yakni +/- 3,5% dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95%.
Para responden ditanyakan 'jika pemilihan presiden diadakan sekarang, siapa yang akan ibu/bapak pilih sebagai presiden di antara nama-nama berikut ini?'. Hasilnya, Prabowo Subianto mengungguli Anies Baswedan dan Ganjar Pranowo.
Berikut ini hasil surveinya:
Juli 2023
Prabowo Subianto 48%
Anies Baswedan 39,5%
Ganjar Pranowo 6,2%
TT/TJ 6,2%
Januari 2023
Anies 49,6%
Prabowo 33,9%
Ganjar 7,7%
TT/TJ 8,7%
Peneliti Utama Indikator Politik Indonesia Burhanuddin Muhtadi lalu membahas terkait hasil survei tersebut. Dia menyampaikan meningkatnya elektabilitas Prabowo Subianto karena keberhasilannya memulihkan dukungan warga Sumatera Barat.
"Pak Prabowo berhasil memulihkan dukungan pemilih warga Sumbar, tapi lagi-lagi perjalanan masih jauh," kata Burhanuddin saat memaparkan survei, Kamis (3/8/2023).
Selain itu, dia menyebut ada kerja keras Ketua DPD Sumbar Gerindra Andre Rosiade yang membuat elektabilitas Prabowo Subianto meningkat. Selain itu, Prabowo juga disebut mampu memulihkan elektabilitasnya setelah di Januari sempat turun drastis.
"Mungkin berkat tim solid, Bung Andre sebagai komandan lapangan kerja keras, ya terpotret dalam survei, terkonfirmasi, tapi lagi-lagi perjalanan masih jauh, yang menarik buat saya tadi sempat turun suara Pak Prabwo, Anies unggul signifikan di Januari 2023, ternyata di Juli 2023 ada perubahan," ujarnya.
"Ini bukti masuknya Pak Prabowo ke Pemerintahan Pak Jokowi meski sempat berefek negatif ke Pak Prabowo di Januari, tetapi perlahan tapi pasti Pak Prabowo mampu pulihkan elektabilitasnya," lanjut dia.