Anies Dead! Who's Lucky?
HISTORY belongs to those who win and know victory does not have to wait until history is written.
By reading public opinion and being able to feel the shifting direction of the political compass (straightforward/semiotic) from key actors, such as party leaders, presidents and interest groups, it is not difficult to feel which direction the winds of victory are blowing from.
Eight months into the grand 2024 presidential election, the wind of Anies Baswedan's victory is blowing less and less, and you can feel the breeze.
This is illustrated in the latest survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle in May 2023, which placed Anies Baswedan in the last position of the three candidates with an electability of 20.8 percent.
This figure does not move up, in fact it tends to decrease when compared to the previous year's survey in May 2022 of 21.4 percent.
Anies' stalemate was exacerbated by the electability gap compared to his two competitors, which was more than 10 percent different, with only 13.4 percent of swing voters remaining.
Even if we simulate that 90 percent of the floating voters migrate fully to support Anies, that doesn't yet put him in a winning position.
There are at least two reasons why Anies Baswedan is in an impasse.
The first is a strategic stalemate. On a voter basis, there is no visible progress in adding new voter niches, if using perceptual mapping.
In his perception, Anies is on the right spectrum, which accommodates religion and Islam more than secularism and nationality.
Being in the middle a little to the right on the spectrum of developmentalism rather than socialism and on the personal spectrum is considered elitist rather than populist.
Personally, Anies has never played with fire, entering the realm of the extreme left or right. However, by not interfering or allowing the flow of voices to support it, the audience's perception is formed from this flow of omission.
Second, the strategic stalemate that was born from an inaccurate reading of the political market. Lack of new political gimmicks, without a strong grand narrative and program offerings.
Anies still wallows in his winged words, occasionally responding in a diplomatic tone of "just look at our track record", which probably not a few people can answer that.
Anies should look for Jakarta's success stories that are important to the public. Choose three to five success only, to be capitalized.
The frame of the success story is with his dream for Indonesia, which strengthens his personality that he is capable, has strong leadership, and has offers.
Instead of relying on polemics over national issues to pursue anti-regime sentiments, which unfortunately are not supported by valid data.
For example, comparing the paths of the Jokowi and SBY eras, which were later denied by many. Such polemics are also found on subsidies and other issues.
Apart from not widening the voter niche, Anies has the potential to lose his voter base because he is too careful and has inconsistencies in his movement, such as remaining silent in his rejection of the oligarchy that may reside within the regime, even within the supporting party.
Then, his silence regarding Israel's participation in the U20 World Cup, which was supported by many of his supporters.
This is of course not just an issue, but attitudes and alignments that are scrutinized by the public that shape the image of a presidential candidate, whether he is a strong leader or an opportunist.
Muzafer Sheriff and Carolyn Sheriff in their study, divided the public's acceptance of the persuasion of the candidate's campaign into three parts.
First, the latitude of Acceptance or the acceptance point of the communicator (candidate) is acceptable or can be tolerated.
Second, latitude of rejection. This point is called the point of rejection, where resistance or opposites strengthen.
Third, latitude of no commitment or neutral condition because there is neither acceptance nor rejection.
In these three zones, Anies needs radical steps to increase acceptance without reducing resistance from his voter base.
Second, the impasse is a barrier to entry. There are at least three reasons. The first is the tempest that is still haunting the Democratic Party, in which Moeldoko's version of the Democrats submitted four new pieces of evidence to the Supreme Court in May 2023, for validation of its management.
Second, the tempest of alleged eight trillion rupiah corruption that befell Johnny G. Plate as the Minister of Communication and Informatics, who is the Secretary General of the Nasdem Party. Coupled with the personal shocks experienced by the leadership of the Nasdem Party.
Another stalemate, namely the obligatory pillars of the coalition that feel they have not been fulfilled.
Because the true discipline of the coalition is not formed just to build an understanding (mutual understanding) or there is political chemistry alone.
There is a reciprocal pattern, such as who determines the cawapres position, what is the compensation for those who do not get the cawapres position and so on.
We know that the cawapres is not only a name on the ballot paper, but also has a tail effect (voting impact) on political parties.
This has not been completed, it can be seen how the party carrying it is still involved in the selection of candidates for cawapres outside the cadres of the party carrying the candidate, also conducting safaris and political communication with parties carrying other candidates.
Buntu Anies, who's lucky?
LSI data for May 2023, photographing a simulation without Anies Baswedan. Anies Baswedan's votes actually flowed to the two candidates Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto.
However, the biggest vote slice went to Prabowo Subianto. If these two candidates fight, Prabowo Subianto will get 50.4 percent electability and Ganjar Pranowo 43.2 percent. Prabowo has a 7.2 percent lead over Ganjar Pranowo.
However, Ganjar Pranowo's strategic team definitely has tactics to block Anies Baswedan's vote migration. The reason is, to win not only with the votes of the candidate voters, but must also attract opposing voters.
Moreover, Ganjar is said to have close ties with Muslim groups where he is the son-in-law of a Kiai, so some call Ganjar "Jokowi plus", because apart from personality he also has a strong entry point for Islamic sentiments.
Although it is not automatic, it illustrates the difficulties that will be faced. Ganjar Pranowo is on the very opposite spectrum from Anies Baswedan.
Whereas the middle position occupied by Prabowo is a luxury in itself, because it can become a melting pot for the migration of votes for those on the left or right of this election battle.
Of course the remaining eight months anything can happen. But maintaining this middle position has been anticipated by Prabowo Subianto.
Prabowo must ensure that there are no mistakes or blunders, so that he can maintain his position, so that he can erase his long wait in this final fight, while quoting Pablo Neruda's poem "You can cut all the flowers, but you can't preventspring is coming.”
Anies Buntu! Siapa Beruntung?
SEJARAH adalah milik mereka yang menang dan mengetahui kemenangan tidak perlu menunggu hingga catatan sejarah itu selesai ditulis.
Dengan membaca opini publik dan kemampuan merasakan bergesernya arah mata angin politik (lugas/semiotik) dari aktor-aktor kunci, seperti pimpinan partai, presiden dan kelompok kepentingan, maka dari arah mana angin kemenangan itu berhempus bukanlah perkara sulit untuk dirasakan.
Menjelang delapan bulan perhelatan akbar Pilpres 2024, angin kemenangan Anies Baswedan makin kecil berembus, kian sepoi-sepoinya saja terasa.
Hal itu tergambar dalam survei teranyar Lingkaran Survei Indonesia pada Mei 2023, yang menempatkan Anies Baswedan pada posisi bontot dari tiga kandidat dengan elektabilitas 20,8 persen.
Angka ini tidak bergerak naik, bahkan cenderung turun jika dibanding survei tahun sebelumnya Mei 2022 sebesar 21,4 persen.
Kebuntuan Anies diperparah kesenjangan elektabilitas dibanding dua kompetitornya yang terpaut lebih dari 10 persen, dengan swing voters yang hanya tersisa 13,4 persen.
Sekalipun kita simulasikan 90 persen pemilih mengambang itu bermigrasi penuh mendukung Anies, itu pun belum menempatkannya pada posisi pemenang.
Setidaknya ada dua alasan mengapa Anies Baswedan mengalami kebuntuan.
Pertama kebuntuan strategis. Secara basis pemilih, tidak terlihat adanya progres untuk menambah ceruk pemilih baru, jika menggunakan perceptual mapping.
Secara persepsi Anies berada pada spektrum kanan yang lebih mengakomodasi agama dan Islam ketimbang sekuler dan kebangsaan.
Berada di tengah sedikit ke kanan pada spektrum developmentalisme ketimbang sosialisme dan pada spektrum personal dinilai elitis ketimbang populis.
Secara personal Anies memang tidak pernah bermain api, dengan masuk pada ranah ekstrem kiri atau kanan. Namun dengan tidak melerai atau membiarkan arus suara pendukungnya, maka persepsi khalayak terbentuk dari arus pembiaran tersebut.
Kedua, kebuntuan strategis yang lahir dari ketidakcermatan membaca pasar politik. Minimnya gimmick politik baru, tanpa narasi besar yang kuat dan tawaran program.
Anies masih saja berkubang dengan kata-kata bersayapnya, sesekali menjawab dengan nada diplomatis “lihat saja rekam jejak”, yang mungkin tidak sedikit publik yang bisa menjawab itu.
Anies semestinya mencari cerita sukses Jakarta yang penting bagi publik. Memilih tiga sampai lima sukses saja, untuk dikapitalisasi.
Bingkai cerita sukses itu dengan mimpinya untuk Indonesia, yang menguatkan personality bahwa dia mampu, punya kepemimpinan kuat, dan punya tawaran.
Ketimbang bertumpu dengan cara berpolemik terkait isu nasional untuk mengejar sentimen antirezim semata, yang sayangnya tidak didukung data valid.
Contohnya, membandingkan jalan era Jokowi dan SBY, yang kemudian dibantah banyak pihak. Polemik seperti itu juga ditemukan pada isu subsidi dan isu lainnya.
Selain tidak memperbesar ceruk pemilih, Anies berpotensi kehilangan basis pemilih karena terlalu berhati-hati dan inkonsitensi dalam gerakan, seperti diam dalam penolakan terhadap oligarki yang mungkin bersemayam dalam tubuh rezim, bahkan di tubuh partai pengusung.
Kemudian, sikap diamnya terkait keikutsertaan Israel pada Piala Dunia U20, yang banyak didukung pendukungnya.
Hal ini tentu bukan sekadar isu semata, namun sikap dan keberpihakan yang dicermati publik yang membentuk gambaran tentang kandidat capres, apakah dia pemimpin kuat atau seorang opurtunis.
Muzafer Sheriff dan Carolyn Sheriff dalam studinya, membagi penerimaan publik atas persuasi kampanye kandidat, dalam tiga bagian.
Pertama, latitude of Acceptance atau titik penerimaan komunikator (kandidat) terterima atau dapat ditoleransi kehadirannya.
Kedua, latitude of rejection.Titik ini disebut titik penolakan, di mana menguatnya resistensi atau berseberangan.
Ketiga, latitude of no commitment atau kondisi netral karena belum ada penerimaan sekaligus juga penolakan.
Pada tiga zona ini, Anies membutuhkan langkah radikal untuk memperbesar penerimaan tanpa mengurangi resistensi dari basis pemilihnya.
Kedua, kebuntuan hambatan pencapresan (barrier to entry). Setidaknya ada tiga alasan. Pertama prahara yang masih menghantui Partai Demokrat, di mana Demokrat versi Moeldoko mengajukan empat bukti baru ke Mahkamah Agung pada Mei 2023, untuk pengesahan kepengurusannya.
Kedua, prahara dugaan korupsi delapan triliun rupiah yang menimpa Johnny G. Plate selaku Menkominfo, yang merupakan Sekjen Partai Nasdem. Ditambah guncangan-guncangan personal yang dialami pimpinan Partai Nasdem.
Kebuntuan lain, yaitu rukun-rukun wajib koalisi yang terasa belum ditunaikan.
Karena sejatinya disiplin koalisi tidak dibentuk hanya sekadar membangun kesepahaman (mutual understanding) atau terdapat political chemistry semata.
Ada pola reciprocal (timbal balik) seperti siapa yang menentukan cawapres, apa kompensasi pihak yang tidak dapat posisi cawapres dan lainnya.
Kita tahu cawapres itu, tidak hanya nama di kertas suara, namun memiliki efek ekor jas (dampak suara) terhadap partai politik.
Belum tuntasnya hal ini terlihat bagaimana partai pengusung masih cawe-cawe seleksi calon cawapres di luar kader partai pengusung, juga melakukan safari dan komunikasi politik dengan partai pengusung kandidat lain.
Buntu Anies, siapa beruntung?
Data LSI Mei 2023, memotret simulasi tanpa Anies Baswedan. Suara Anies Baswedan ternyata mengalir pada dua kandidat Ganjar Pranowo dan Prabowo Subianto.
Namun irisan suara terbesar mengalir ke Prabowo Subianto. Jika dua kandidat ini bertarung, Prabowo Subianto memperoleh elektabilitas 50,4 persen dan Ganjar Pranowo 43,2 persen. Prabowo unggul 7,2 persen atas Ganjar Pranowo.
Namun tim strategis Ganjar Pranowo pasti punya taktik untuk mengaet migrasi suara Anies Baswedan. Pasalnya, untuk menang tidak hanya dengan suara pemilih kandidat, namun harus masuk menarik pemilih lawan.
Apalagi Ganjar digadang punya kedekatan dengan kelompok Muslim di mana ia menantu dari seorang Kiai, sehingga ada yang menyebut Ganjar sebagai "Jokowi plus", karena selain personality juga punya pintu masuk kuat untuk sentimen Islam.
Walaupun hal itu tidak otomatis, tergambar kesulitan yang akan dihadapi. Ganjar Pranowo berada pada spektrum yang sangat berseberangan dengan Anies Baswedan.
Sedangkan posisi tengah yang ditempati Prabowo, adalah kemewahan tersendiri, karena dapat menjadi melting pot migrasi suara mereka yang di kiri atau kanan pertarungan pilpres ini.
Tentu delapan bulan tersisa apapun bisa terjadi. Namun menjaga posisi tengah ini telah diantisipasi oleh Prabowo Subianto.
Prabowo harus memastikan tidak terjadi kesalahan atau blunder apapun, sehingga dapat mempertahankan posisi, sehingga dapat menghapus penantian panjangnya dalam pertarungan pamungkas ini, sembari mengutip puisi Pablo Neruda “Kamu bisa memotong semua bunga yang ada, tapi kamu tidak bisa mencegah musim semi datang.”