Research & Development Survey "Kompas": Nasdem Party Electability Increases 3 Percent, Jas Anies Baswedan's Tail Effect

The results of an opinion poll conducted by Kompas Research and Development in January showed that the electability of the Nasdem Party increased from 4.3 percent to 7.3 percent. 

According to the Kompas Research and Development team, the increase in the electability rate of the Nasdem Party is a tail effect that was obtained after the declaration supporting Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate. 

"Nasdem got the tail effect of Anies so that he experienced a jump in electability to 7.3 percent from 4.3 percent in the October 2022 Kompas periodic survey," wrote the Kompas Research and Development team, quoted from Kompas.id, Tuesday (21/2/2023). 

Kompas Research and Development said that the increase in electability of 3 percent that was obtained by Nasdem had never happened since the survey was conducted. 

Previously, the electability of political parties led by Surya Paloh fluctuated gently in the range of 2-4 percent. 

Furthermore, Kompas Research and Development wrote, Nasdem's steps in nominating Anies as a presidential candidate had been quite successful in consolidating Anies' sympathizers who were spread across a number of political parties. 

"In October 2022, the proportion of respondents who voted for Anies in Nasdem was only 4.6 percent, now it has jumped to 22.6 percent," wrote Kompas Research and Development. 

Nasdem's success has resulted in a decline in the electability of other political parties that form the basis of Anies' voters, including the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which have also expressed support for Anies. 

In this survey, the electability of the Democratic Party was recorded to have fallen by 5.3 points from 14 percent in October 2022 to 8.7 percent. 

The proportion of respondents who voted for Anies in the Democrats also fell from 18.9 percent in October 2022 to 11.3 percent in January 2023. 

"This means that there is a difference of 7.6 percent of Democratic voters who also voted for Anies Baswedan and are now leaving to vote for Democrats," wrote Kompas Research and Development. 

A similar situation was experienced by PKS whose electability fell from 6.3 percent to 4.8 percent. The proportion of PKS respondents who voted for Anies also fell from 19.9 percent to 17.6 percent. 

The following is the order of the top 10 electability levels of political parties based on the January 2023 Kompas R&D poll:

1. PDI-P: 22.9 percent

2. Gerindra Party: 14.3 percent

3. Golkar Party: 9 percent

4. Democratic Party: 8.7 percent

5. Nasdem Party: 7.3 percent

6. PKB: 6.1 percent

7. PKS: 4.8 percent

8. Perindo: 4.1 percent

9. PPP: 2.3 percent

10. PAN: 1.6 percent

This poll took place on January 25-February 4 2023, attended by 1,202 respondents drawn from 38 provinces in Indonesia. 

The survey took place through face-to-face interviews, while the sample was selected randomly using a stratified systematic. 

Using this method has 95 percent public confidence, with a margin of error of approximately 2.83 percent. 

Survei Litbang "Kompas": Elektabilitas Partai Nasdem Naik 3 Persen, Efek Ekor Jas Anies Baswedan

Hasil jajak pendapat yang diselenggarakan oleh Litbang Kompas pada Januari menunjukkan, elektabilitas Partai Nasdem meningkat dari 4,3 persen menjadi 7,3 persen.

Menurut tim Litbang Kompas, kenaikan tingkat keterpilihan Partai Nasdem merupakan efek ekor jas yang didapat setelah deklarasi mendukung Anies Baswedan sebagai bakal calon presiden.

"Nasdem mendapat efek ekor jas Anies sehingga mengalami lompatan elektabilitas menjadi 7,3 persen dari 4,3 persen pada survei periodik Kompas Oktober 2022," tulis tim Litbang Kompas, dikutip dari Kompas .id, Selasa (21/2/2023).

Litbang Kompas menyebutkan, pertambahan elektabilitas sebesar 3 persen yang diperoleh Nasdem belum pernah terjadi sejak survei dilakukan.

Elektabilitas partai politik (parpol) yang dipimpin Surya Paloh itu sebelumnya berfluktuasi landai di kisaran 2-4 persen.

Lebih lanjut, Litbang Kompas menuliskan, langkah Nasdem dalam pencalonan Anies sebagai bakal calon presiden, telah cukup berhasil mengonsolidasikan simpatisan Anies yang tersebar di sejumlah parpol

"Pada Oktober 2022, proporsi responden pemilih Anies di Nasdem hanya 4,6 persen kini melonjak jadi 22,6 persen," tulis Litbang Kompas.

Keberhasilan Nasdem itu lantas mengakibatkan menurunnya elektabilitas parpol lain yang menjadi basis pemilih Anies, termasuk Partai Demokrat dan Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) yang juga telah menyatakan dukungan kepada Anies.

Dalam survei ini, elektabilitas Partai Demokrat tercatat turun 5,3 poin dari 14 persen pada Oktober 2022 menjadi 8,7 persen.

Proporsi responden pemilih Anies di Demokrat juga turun dari 18,9 persen pada Oktober 2022 menjadi 11,3 persen pada Januari 2023.

"Artinya, ada selisih 7,6 persen pemilih Demokrat yang juga memilih Anies Baswedan kini hengkang dari memilih Demokrat," tulis Litbang Kompas.

Situasi serupa dialami PKS yang elektabilitasnya turun dari 6,3 persen menjadi 4,8 persen. Proporsi responden PKS pemilih Anies juga turun dari 19,9 persen menjadi 17,6 persen.

Berikut urutan 10 besar tingkat elektablitas partai politik berdasarkan jajak pendapat Litbang Kompas Januari 2023:

1. PDI-P: 22,9 persen

2. Partai Gerindra: 14,3 persen

3. Partai Golkar: 9 persen

4. Partai Demokrat: 8,7 persen

5. Partai Nasdem: 7,3 persen

6. PKB: 6,1 persen

7. PKS: 4,8 persen

8. Perindo: 4,1 persen

9. PPP: 2,3 persen

10. PAN: 1,6 persen

Jajak pendapat ini berlangsung pada 25 Januari-4 Februari 2023, diikuti oleh 1.202 responden yang diambil dari 38 provinsi di Indonesia.

Survei berlangsung melalui wawancara tatap muka, sedangkan sampel dipilih secara acak menggunakan sistematis bertingkat.

Menggunakan metode itu memiliki kepercayaan publik 95 persen, dengan margin of error lebih kurang 2,83 persen.